Real-Time Return Demand Prediction Based on Multisource Data of One-Way Carsharing Systems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
One-way carsharing system has been widely adopted in the carsharing field due to its flexible services. However, as one of the main limitations of the one-way carsharing system, the imbalance between supply and demand needs to be solved. Predicting pick-up demand has been studied to achieve the goal, but using returned vehicles to reduce unnecessary relocation is also one of the important methods. Nowadays, trajectory data and other data are available for real-time prediction for return demand. Based on the return demand prediction, the relocation response can be more reasonable. Thus, the balance of demand and supply can be largely improved. The multisource data include trajectory data, user application log data, order data, station data, and user characteristic data. Based on these data, a return demand prediction model was used to predict whether the user will return the vehicle in 15 min in real time, and a destination station prediction model was applied to forecast which station the user will park at. Finally, a case study using ten stations’ one-week field data was conducted to test the benefit of the dynamic return demand prediction. The results showed that the return demand prediction improves the efficiency of the relocations by mitigating the condition that the station parking space is full or empty. The potential application of this study would effectively reduce unnecessary relocation and further formulate an active operation optimization strategy to reduce the system’s operational cost and improve the service quality of the system.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".