Further Probing the Mechanisms Driving Regional Projections of Extreme Precipitation Intensity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Regional projections of extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) are strongly influenced by regional projections of extreme ascent,. Earlier studies are suggesting that long-term changes in eddy length and vertical stability are key factors influencing extreme ascent projections. We performed controlled experiments using the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM). Domains we chosen in the subtropical South Atlantic, where the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) projects weakening of extreme ascent. SAM was forced with large-scale temperature, moisture and winds from CanESM2 during extreme events in the historical (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) periods. SAM qualitatively reproduced CanESM2s projected changes in EPI. To gain further insight into physical mechanisms, we performed isolation runs in which some of the CRMs large-scale forcings were changed to their future values, while keeping all other forcings fixed to historical values. In all cases, long-term changes in horizontal advection were the dominant driver of projected decreases in EPI.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".