Effects of the 2008 Financial Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic on the Dynamic Relationship between the Chinese and International Fossil Fuel Markets
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examines whether the dynamic relationship between the Chinese and international fossil markets changed during the 2008 financial crisis and is changing during the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the crises are analyzed by including the periods affected by the crises as dummy variables in the VAR and VECM models. Monthly data for the 2000:1–2020:12 period were used in the study. Our results suggest that the effects of the COVID-19 on the linkages between the Chinese and international fossil fuel markets are not as evident compared to the 2008 financial crisis. The study identifies that the effects of the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic on the linkages are mostly driven by the impacts of these crises on the Chinese fossil fuel markets. The study indicates the importance of controlling the risk involved in the Chinese fossil fuel market when events like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic are changing the linkages between the Chinese and international fossil fuel markets.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".