Early Warning of Infection in Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Using Heart Rate Variability and Serum Biomarkers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Early warning of infection is critical to reduce the risk of deterioration and mortality, especially in neutropenic patients following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT). Given that heart rate variability (HRV) is a sensitive and early marker for infection, and that serum inflammatory biomarkers can have high specificity for infection, we hypothesized their combination may be useful for accurate early warning of infection. In this study, we developed and evaluated a composite predictive model using continuous HRV with daily serum biomarker measurements to provide risk stratification of future deterioration in HCT recipients. A total of 116 ambulatory outpatients about to undergo HCT consented to collection of prospective demographic, clinical (daily vital signs), HRV (continuous electrocardiography [ECG] monitoring, laboratory [daily serum samples frozen at -80 °C]), and infection outcome variables (defined as the time of escalation of antibiotics), all from 24 hours pre-HCT to the onset of infection or 14 days post-HCT. Indications for antibiotic escalation were adjudicated as "true infection" or not by 2 blinded HCT clinicians. A composite time series of 8 HRV metrics was created for each patient, and the probability of deterioration within the next 72 hours was estimated using logistic regression modeling of composite HRV and serum biomarkers using a rule-based naïve Bayes model if the HRV-based probability exceeded a median threshold. Thirty-five patients (30%) withdrew within <24 hours owing to intolerability of ECG monitoring, leaving 81 patients, of whom 48 (59%) had antibiotic escalation adjudicated as true infection. The combined HRV and biomarker (TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-7) predictive model began increasing at ~48 hours on average before the diagnosis of infection, could distinguish between high risk of impending infection (>90% incidence of subsequent infection within 72 hours), average risk (~50%), and low risk (<10%), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87. However, given that prophylactic predictive ECG monitoring and daily serum collection proved challenging for many patients, further refinement in measurement is necessary for further study.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".