Model of Assessing the Overdue Debts in a Commercial Bank Using Neuro-Fuzzy Technologies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article considers the problems of overdue credit debt and the creation of effective methods to manage problem debts in banks. The purpose of this paper is to study the problem of overdue credit debt and create effective methods to manage problem debts in financial institutions. Based on a combination of tools of fuzzy logic theory and artificial neural networks, an economic-mathematical model of collection scoring was built. Kohonen self-organizing maps were used to set the parameters of membership functions in the process of fuzzification of quantitative variables of the built model. Data were taken from the official websites of four Bulgarian banks for 2015–2019. The volume of the prepared sample amounted to 1000 credit agreements with active overdue payments. The practical value of the built model of collection scoring for the recovery of overdue debt lies in the possibility to make recommendations for work with each segment of the portfolio of overdue loans in accordance with the calculated level of credit risk. The introduction of credit risk assessment models based on neuro-fuzzy technologies in the work of financial institutions will have a positive impact on the financial results of lending activities of banks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".