Population Properties of Compact Objects from the Second LIGO–Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog
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Abstract
Abstract We report on the population of 47 compact binary mergers detected with a false-alarm rate of < <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:msup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>yr</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msup> </mml:math> in the second LIGO–Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog. We observe several characteristics of the merging binary black hole (BBH) population not discernible until now. First, the primary mass spectrum contains structure beyond a power law with a sharp high-mass cutoff; it is more consistent with a broken power law with a break at <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>39.7</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>9.1</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>20.3</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>M</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>⊙</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> or a power law with a Gaussian feature peaking at <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>33.1</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>5.6</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>4.0</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>M</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>⊙</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> (90% credible interval). While the primary mass distribution must extend to <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mo>∼</mml:mo> <mml:mn>65</mml:mn> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>M</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>⊙</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> or beyond, only <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>2.9</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1.7</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>3.5</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mo>%</mml:mo> </mml:math> of systems have primary masses greater than <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mn>45</mml:mn> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>M</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>⊙</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> . Second, we find that a fraction of BBH systems have component spins misaligned with the orbital angular momentum, giving rise to precession of the orbital plane. Moreover, <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mn>12</mml:mn> </mml:math> %– <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mn>44</mml:mn> </mml:math> % of BBH systems have spins tilted by more than 90°, giving rise to a negative effective inspiral spin parameter, <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>χ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>eff</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> . Under the assumption that such systems can only be formed by dynamical interactions, we infer that between 25% and 93% of BBHs with nonvanishing <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mo stretchy="false">∣</mml:mo> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>χ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>eff</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> <mml:mo stretchy="false">∣</mml:mo> <mml:mo>></mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.01</mml:mn> </mml:math> are dynamically assembled. Third, we estimate merger rates, finding <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-calligraphic" mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>BBH</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>23.9</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>8.6</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>14.3</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:msup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>Gpc</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mro
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it