The Influence of Oil Prices on Equity Returns of Canadian Energy Firms
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Using monthly data from January 2000 to August 2018, this paper examines how the Canadian oil and gas industry and individual firms’ equity prices react to oil price fluctuations, which are measured by the traditional West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and the Canada-specific Western Canadian Select (WCS) benchmark. The findings provide support for the view that oil price movements are an important factor in explaining the equity returns of the overall industry and for many individual oil and gas firms in Canada. Both WTI and WCS measures provide statistically significant evidence, but the results support that WTI may still be the more relevant measure for Canadian-based firms. We also find that the spread between WTI and WCS has a minimal impact on the firms’ equity returns. Additional tests for asymmetric impacts of oil price movements on Canadian oil and gas equity returns have provided little evidence, whereas time-varying impacts are found for a handful of firms. The empirical findings predicated on the holistic view of the impacts of oil price fluctuations on equity market returns will enhance investor confidence and strengthen the Canadian economy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".