Estimation of Oceanic and Land Carbon Sinks Based on the Most Recent Oxygen Budget
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Robust assessments of global carbon uptake are important for understanding Earth's carbon cycle and its response to human impacts. Here, based on the most recent oxygen budget, we presented an alternative estimate of ocean and land carbon sinks over the past few decades and future projections under climate change. For the period from 1990 to 2015, the ocean and land carbon sinks were ∼2.16 ± 0.73 and 1.37 ± 0.91 GtC/yr, respectively, which are in good agreement with the results from the Global Carbon Project (GCP). Our estimated temporal evolution of oceanic carbon uptake, however, presents a stronger decadal variation than the quasi‐monotonous increase estimated by the GCP. Future projections of carbon sinks show significant discrepancies under different scenarios. At the end of this century, the ocean and land sinks will be 2.96 and 0.75 GtC/yr, respectively, under RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways), while these values will be much larger under RCP8.5 at ∼5.70 and 3.69 GtC/yr, highlighting the vital role of the human‐induced influence on the carbon cycle.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".