Changes in the Gulf Stream preceded rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Northwest Atlantic Shelf provides ecological and economic benefits along the heavily populated North American coastline and beyond. In 2009-2010, abrupt warming prompted an ecosystem shift with consequences for fisheries, yet the cause of this event is unclear. Here we use satellite altimetry and in situ measurements to show that, in 2008, the Gulf Stream migrated closer to the Tail of the Grand Banks, a shift that has persisted ever since. This change reduced the westward connectivity of the Labrador Current that otherwise supplies cold, fresh, oxygen-rich waters to the shelf. Within one year after the appearance of anomalously warm and saline water at the Tail of Grand Banks, subsurface warming progressed south-westwards. Historical observations suggest a similar sequence of events may have occurred in the 1970s. Therefore, monitoring water properties at the Tail of Grand Banks may offer predictability for shelf properties and ecosystem perturbations with substantial lead time.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it