Mental Health Symptoms Unexpectedly Increased in Students Aged 11–19 Years During the 3.5 Years After the 2016 Fort McMurray Wildfire: Findings From 9,376 Survey Responses
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, the wildfire of May 2016 forced the population of 88,000 to rapidly evacuate in a traumatic and chaotic manner. Ten percentage of the homes in the city were destroyed, and many more structures were damaged. Since youth are particularly vulnerable to negative effects of natural disasters, we examined possible long-term psychological impacts. To assess this, we partnered with Fort McMurray Public and Catholic Schools, who surveyed Grade 7-12 students (aged 11-19) in November 2017, 2018, and 2019-i.e., at 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 years after the wildfire. The survey included validated measurement scales for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, anxiety, drug use, alcohol use, tobacco use, quality of life, self-esteem, and resilience. Data analysis was done on large-scale anonymous surveys including 3,070 samples in 2017; 3,265 samples in 2018; and 3,041 samples in 2019. The results were unexpected and showed that all mental health symptoms increased from 2017 to 2019, with the exception of tobacco use. Consistent with this pattern, self-esteem and quality of life scores decreased. Resilience scores did not change significantly. Thus, mental health measures worsened, in contrast to our initial hypothesis that they would improve over time. Of note, we observed higher levels of mental health distress among older students, in females compared to male students, and in individuals with a minority gender identity, including transgender and gender-non-conforming individuals. These findings demonstrate that deleterious mental health effects can persist in youth for years following a wildfire disaster. This highlights the need for multi-year mental health support programs for youth in post-disaster situations. The indication that multi-year, post-disaster support is warranted is relatively novel, although not unknown. There is a need to systematically investigate factors associated with youth recovery following a wildfire disaster, as well as efficacy of psychosocial strategies during later phases of disaster recovery relative to early post-disaster interventions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".