Interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of alcohol control policy on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Lithuania: a study protocol
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction Alcohol use is a major risk factor for mortality. Previous studies suggest that the alcohol-attributable mortality burden is higher in lower socioeconomic strata. This project will test the hypothesis, that the 2017 increase of alcohol excise taxes for beer and wine, which was linked to lower all-cause mortality rates in previous analyses, will reduce socioeconomic mortality inequalities. Methods and analysis Data on all causes of deaths will be obtained from Statistics Lithuania. Record linkage will be implemented using personal identifiers combining data from 1) the 2011 whole-population census, 2) death records between March 1, 2011 (census date) and December 31, 2019, and 3) emigration records, for individuals aged 30 to 70 years. The analyses will be performed separately for all-cause and for alcohol-attributable deaths. Monthly age-standardized mortality rates will be calculated by sex, education, and three measures of socioeconomic status. Inequalities in mortality will be assessed using absolute and relative indicators between low and high SES groups. We will perform interrupted time series analyses, and test the impact of the 2017 rise in alcohol excise taxation using generalized additive mixed models. In these models, we will control for secular trends for economic development. Ethics and dissemination This work is part of project grant 1R01AA028224-01 by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. It has been granted research ethics approval 050/2020 by CAMH Research Ethics Board on April 17, 2020, renewed on March 30, 2021.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.059 | 0.064 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.049 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".