Leaf multiplicity in a Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson tree
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This note defines a notion of multiplicity for nodes in a rooted tree and presents an asymptotic calculation of the maximum multiplicity over all leaves in a Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson tree with critical offspring distribution $\xi$, conditioned on the tree being of size $n$. In particular, we show that if $S_n$ is the maximum multiplicity in a conditional Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson tree, then $S_n = \Omega(\log n)$ asymptotically in probability and under the further assumption that ${\bf E}\{2^\xi\} < \infty$, we have $S_n = O(\log n)$ asymptotically in probability as well. Explicit formulas are given for the constants in both bounds. We conclude by discussing links with an alternate definition of multiplicity that arises in the root-estimation problem.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it