Sculpting the Sub-Saturn Occurrence Rate via Atmospheric Mass Loss
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The sub-Saturn (∼4–8 R ⊕ ) occurrence rate rises with orbital period out to at least ∼300 days. In this work we adopt and test the hypothesis that the decrease in their occurrence toward the star is a result of atmospheric mass loss, which can transform sub-Saturns into sub-Neptunes (≲4 R ⊕ ) more efficiently at shorter periods. We show that under the mass-loss hypothesis, the sub-Saturn occurrence rate can be leveraged to infer their underlying core mass function, and, by extension, that of gas giants. We determine that lognormal core mass functions peaked near ∼10–20 M ⊕ are compatible with the sub-Saturn period distribution, the distribution of observationally inferred sub-Saturn cores, and gas-accretion theories. Our theory predicts that close-in sub-Saturns should be ∼50% less common and ∼30% more massive around rapidly rotating stars; this should be directly testable for stars younger than ≲500 Myr. We also predict that the sub-Jovian desert becomes less pronounced and opens up at smaller orbital periods around M stars compared to solar-type stars (∼0.7 days versus ∼3 days). We demonstrate that exceptionally low-density sub-Saturns, “super-puffs,” can survive intense hydrodynamic escape to the present day if they are born with even larger atmospheres than they currently harbor; in this picture, Kepler 223 d began with an envelope ∼1.5× the mass of its core and is currently losing its envelope at a rate of ∼2 × 10 −3 M ⊕ Myr −1 . If the predictions from our theory are confirmed by observations, the core mass function we predict can also serve to constrain core formation theories of gas-rich planets.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".