The persistence of a SIR disease in a metapopulation: Hendra virus epidemics in Australian black flying foxes (Pteropus alecto)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding how emerging viruses persist in bat populations is a fundamental step to understand the processes by which viruses are transmitted from reservoir hosts to spillover hosts. Hendra virus, which has caused fatal infections in horses and humans in eastern Australia since 1994, spills over from its natural reservoir hosts, Pteropus bats (colloquially known as flying foxes). It has been suggested that the Hendra virus maintenance mechanism in the bat populations might be implicated with their metapopulation structure. Here, we examine whether a metapopulation consisting of black flying fox (P. alecto) colonies that are smaller than the critical community size can maintain the Hendra virus. By using the Gillespie algorithm, stochastic mathematical models were used to simulate a cycle, in which viral extinction and recolonisation were repeated in a single colony within a metapopulation. Given estimated flying fox immigration rates, the simulation results showed that recolonisation occurred more frequently than extinction, which indicated that infection would not go extinct in the metapopulation. Consequently, this study suggests that a collection of transient epidemics of Hendra virus in numerous colonies of flying foxes in Australia can support the long-term persistence of the virus at the metapopulation level.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".