Census Tract Patterns and Contextual Social Determinants of Health Associated With COVID-19 in a Hispanic Population From South Texas: A Spatiotemporal Perspective
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that various social determinants of health (SDOH) may have contributed to the disparities in COVID-19 incidence and mortality among minorities and underserved populations at the county or zip code level. OBJECTIVE: This analysis was carried out at a granular spatial resolution of census tracts to explore the spatial patterns and contextual SDOH associated with COVID-19 incidence from a Hispanic population mostly consisting of a Mexican American population living in Cameron County, Texas on the border of the United States and Mexico. We performed age-stratified analysis to identify different contributing SDOH and quantify their effects by age groups. METHODS: We included all reported COVID-19-positive cases confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction testing between March 18 (first case reported) and December 16, 2020, in Cameron County, Texas. Confirmed COVID-19 cases were aggregated to weekly counts by census tracts. We adopted a Bayesian spatiotemporal negative binomial model to investigate the COVID-19 incidence rate in relation to census tract demographics and SDOH obtained from the American Community Survey. Moreover, we investigated the impact of local mitigation policy on COVID-19 by creating the binary variable "shelter-in-place." The analysis was performed on all COVID-19-confirmed cases and age-stratified subgroups. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed that the relative incidence risk (RR) of COVID-19 was higher among census tracts with a higher percentage of single-parent households (RR=1.016, 95% posterior credible intervals [CIs] 1.005, 1.027) and a higher percentage of the population with limited English proficiency (RR=1.015, 95% CI 1.003, 1.028). Lower RR was associated with lower income (RR=0.972, 95% CI 0.953, 0.993) and the percentage of the population younger than 18 years (RR=0.976, 95% CI 0.959, 0.993). The most significant association was related to the "shelter-in-place" variable, where the incidence risk of COVID-19 was reduced by over 50%, comparing the time periods when the policy was present versus absent (RR=0.506, 95% CI 0.454, 0.563). Moreover, age-stratified analyses identified different significant contributing factors and a varying magnitude of the "shelter-in-place" effect. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, SDOH including social environment and local emergency measures were identified in relation to COVID-19 incidence risk at the census tract level in a highly disadvantaged population with limited health care access and a high prevalence of chronic conditions. Results from our analysis provide key knowledge to design efficient testing strategies and assist local public health departments in COVID-19 control, mitigation, and implementation of vaccine strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".