No general shift in spring migration phenology by eastern North American birds since 1970
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We studied the phenology of spring bird migration from eBird and ÉPOQ checklist programs South of 49°N in the province of Quebec, Canada, between 1970 and 2020. 152 species were grouped into Arctic, long-distance, and short-distance migrants. Among those species, 75 significantly changed their migration dates, after accounting for temporal variability in observation effort, species abundance, and latitude. But in contrast to most studies on the subject, we found no general advance in spring migration dates, with 36 species advancing and 39 species delaying their migration. Several early-migrant species associated to open water advanced their spring migration, possibly due to decreasing early-spring ice cover in the Great Lakes and the St-Lawrence river since 1970. Arctic breeders and short-distance migrants advanced their first arrival dates more than long-distance migrants not breeding in the arctic. However, there was no difference among migrant groups when median arrival dates were considered. We conclude that general claims about advances in spring migration dates in eastern North America are misleading due to large taxonomic variation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".