Relevance of Complaint Severity in Predicting the Progression of Subjective Cognitive Decline and Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Machine Learning Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The presence of subjective cognitive complaints (SCCs) is a core criterion for diagnosis of subjective cognitive decline (SCD); however, no standard procedure for distinguishing normative and non-normative SCCs has yet been established. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether differentiation of participants with SCD according to SCC severity improves the validity of the prediction of progression in SCD and MCI and to explore validity metrics for two extreme thresholds of the distribution in scores in a questionnaire on SCCs. METHODS: Two hundred and fifty-three older adults with SCCs participating in the Compostela Aging Study (CompAS) were classified as MCI or SCD at baseline. The participants underwent two follow-up assessments and were classified as cognitively stable or worsened. Severity of SCCs (low and high) in SCD was established by using two different percentiles of the questionnaire score distribution as cut-off points. The validity of these cut-off points for predicting progression using socio-demographic, health, and neuropsychological variables was tested by machine learning (ML) analysis. RESULTS: Severity of SCCs in SCD established considering the 5th percentile as a cut-off point proved to be the best metric for predicting progression. The variables with the main role in conforming the predictive algorithm were those related to memory, cognitive reserve, general health, and the stability of diagnosis over time. CONCLUSION: Moderate to high complainers showed an increased probability of progression in cognitive decline, suggesting the clinical relevance of standard procedures to determine SCC severity. Our findings highlight the important role of the multimodal ML approach in predicting progression.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".