Climate and socio‐economic factors explain differences between observed and expected naturalization patterns of European plants around the world
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim The number of naturalized (i.e. established) alien species has increased rapidly over recent centuries. Given the differences in environmental tolerances among species, little is known about what factors determine the extent to which the observed size of the naturalized range of a species and hence the extent to which the observed richness of naturalized species of a region approach their full potential. Here, we asked which region‐ and species‐specific characteristics explain differences between observed and expected naturalizations. Location Global. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Vascular plants. Methods We determined the observed naturalized distribution outside Europe for 1,485 species endemic to Europe using the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database and their expected distributions outside Europe using species distribution models. First, we investigated which of seven socio‐economic factors related to introduction pathways, anthropogenic pressures and inventory effort best explained the differences between observed and expected naturalized European floras. Second, we examined whether distributional features, economic use and functional traits explain the extent to which species have filled their expected ranges outside Europe. Results In terms of suitable area, more than 95% of expected naturalizations of European plants were not yet observed. Species were naturalized in only 4.2% of their suitable regions outside of Europe (range filling) and in 0.4% of their unsuitable regions (range expansion). Anthropogenic habitat disturbance primarily explained the difference between observed and expected naturalized European floras, as did the number of treaties relevant to invasive species. Species of ornamental and economic value and with large specific leaf area performed better at filling and expanding beyond their expected range. Main conclusions The naturalization of alien plant species is explained by climate matching but also by the regional level of human development, the introduction pressure associated with the ornamental and economic values of the species and their adaptation to disturbed environments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".