P160 Can the Lemann index at diagnosis predict the risk of early surgery in Crohn’s disease?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Identifying patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) with rapid disease progression or at high risk for early surgery is a crucial pillar in the treatment decision to ensure optimal patient management. The objective of this study was to assess the correlation between the Lemann index at the time of diagnosis and abdominal surgery in the first year after diagnosis of Crohn’s disease and to find the risk factors for early surgery. Methods This is a retrospective study of all patients with CD followed in our center over a period of 4 years (January 2016- January 2020), and who were evaluated by endoscopy and MRI at baseline. The Lemann Index is a score that measures cumulative damage to digestive tissue from entero-MRI and endoscopy data. It was calculated by noting the previous surgery, the location and extension of the disease and any intestinal complications. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of the patients were studied. Hypothesis tests were applied to identify associations. Results 112 patients with CD were included in this study, of which 53.6% were female. The mean age at diagnosis was 33.29 years [15–63]. Active smoking was found in 34 patients (30.4%). Regarding the localization of CD, it was ileal (L1 according to the Montreal classification), colonic (L2), and ileocolonic (L3) in respectively 16.1%, 42.9% and 41%. The disease phenotype was inflammatory (B1) in 60.7%, stricturing (B2) in 21.42%, and penetrating (B3) in 17.85%. Anoperineal manifestations were noted in 24 patients. An upper digestive tract was present in 19.6% of patients. The initial flare was judged to be severe in 33.9% of cases, moderate in 55.4% of cases and mild in 10.7% of cases, with a mean CDAI of 305.21 [115–493]. During the first year after diagnosis of CD, 19.6% of patients (n = 22) required surgical treatment. The indications for surgery were: the presence of an intra-abdominal collection (27.3%), severe acute corticosteroid-resistant colitis (18.2%); ileocaecal stenosis resistant to medical treatment (27.3%) or acute bowel obstruction (27.3%). The LI at diagnosis was much higher in the early surgery group: 5.22 +/- 2.65 vs. 2.63 +/- 1.88; with a statistically significant difference (p = 0.01). A severe initial flare as well as a penetrating phenotype were predictors of early abdominal surgery (p = 0.022, p = 0.024, respectively). Conclusion According to our study, a high Lemann score at diagnosis correlates well with the risk of early surgery in Crohn’s disease. Further, larger-scale studies would be needed to establish the reliability of this test in predicting this risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".