How does international monetary leadership end? The Sterling Area revisited
Bibliographic record
Abstract
How does international monetary leadership end?This paper examines the decline of the Sterling Area between 1945 and 1979 to understand the process of international economic disintegration.Using an original cross-national panel dataset, we conduct survival analysis which systematically evaluates a comprehensive set of economic and political factors about when and why countries chose to leave the Sterling Area.We find that membership of the Sterling Area was determined by multidimensional aspects.Our results highlight the significance of international economic and geopolitical factors, such as trade and diplomatic alignment, on the decision to leave.However we also find that domestic political and historical factors, such as democracy and imperial legacy, played a role in the Sterling Area's unravelling.Finally, we use our results to examine the experience of individual countries and their decisions to leave the Sterling Area.Revisiting this history of a gradually dissolving economic order, played out in the shadow of Britain's waning imperial and economic power, has cautionary implications for the future of the US dollar order.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".