Human-level COVID-19 diagnosis from low-dose CT scans using a two-stage time-distributed capsule network
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction is currently the gold standard in COVID-19 diagnosis. It can, however, take days to provide the diagnosis, and false negative rate is relatively high. Imaging, in particular chest computed tomography (CT), can assist with diagnosis and assessment of this disease. Nevertheless, it is shown that standard dose CT scan gives significant radiation burden to patients, especially those in need of multiple scans. In this study, we consider low-dose and ultra-low-dose (LDCT and ULDCT) scan protocols that reduce the radiation exposure close to that of a single X-ray, while maintaining an acceptable resolution for diagnosis purposes. Since thoracic radiology expertise may not be widely available during the pandemic, we develop an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based framework using a collected dataset of LDCT/ULDCT scans, to study the hypothesis that the AI model can provide human-level performance. The AI model uses a two stage capsule network architecture and can rapidly classify COVID-19, community acquired pneumonia (CAP), and normal cases, using LDCT/ULDCT scans. Based on a cross validation, the AI model achieves COVID-19 sensitivity of [Formula: see text], CAP sensitivity of [Formula: see text], normal cases sensitivity (specificity) of [Formula: see text], and accuracy of [Formula: see text]. By incorporating clinical data (demographic and symptoms), the performance further improves to COVID-19 sensitivity of [Formula: see text], CAP sensitivity of [Formula: see text], normal cases sensitivity (specificity) of [Formula: see text] , and accuracy of [Formula: see text]. The proposed AI model achieves human-level diagnosis based on the LDCT/ULDCT scans with reduced radiation exposure. We believe that the proposed AI model has the potential to assist the radiologists to accurately and promptly diagnose COVID-19 infection and help control the transmission chain during the pandemic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".