Response of runoff in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River to climate change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Climate change affects the water cycle in different regions. The response of annual runoff and seasonal distribution to climate change in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River during 2021–2050 was studied by coupling the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). This model was driven by the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River has a unique response to climate change. The maximum and minimum temperatures will increase with the increase in emissions, especially in December–January. The daily precipitation shows an upward trend, especially in July–August in the RCP4.5 scenario. The annual runoff shows an upward trend with the increase in emissions. Compared with the current increase of 13–26%, the most prominent period is November–April. Because the study area covers high mountains and gorge landforms, the altitude difference is great, and the influence of evapotranspiration and snow melting processes is more prominent, causing the monthly runoff to decrease in June–July with an increase in precipitation. From April to May, precipitation decreased while runoff increased.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".