Prediction of Train Arrival Delay Using Hybrid ELM-PSO Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study, a hybrid method combining extreme learning machine (ELM) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed to forecast train arrival delays that can be used for later delay management and timetable optimization. First, nine characteristics (e.g., buffer time, the train number, and station code) associated with train arrival delays are chosen and analyzed using extra trees classifier. Next, an ELM with one hidden layer is developed to predict train arrival delays by considering these characteristics mentioned before as input features. Furthermore, the PSO algorithm is chosen to optimize the hyperparameter of the ELM compared to Bayesian optimization and genetic algorithm solving the arduousness problem of manual regulating. Finally, a case is studied to confirm the advantage of the proposed model. Contrasted to four baseline models (k-nearest neighbor, categorical boosting, Lasso, and gradient boosting decision tree) across different metrics, the proposed model is demonstrated to be proficient and achieve the highest prediction accuracy. In addition, through a detailed analysis of the prediction error, it is found that our model possesses good robustness and correctness.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".