Climate variability following large volcanic eruption: CMIP6 model investigation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
<p>Volcanic eruptions are an important driver of climate variability. Multiple literature sources have shown that after large explosive eruptions there is a decrease in global mean temperature, caused by an increased amount of stratospheric aerosols which influence the global radiative budget. In this study, we investigate the changes in several climate variables after a volcanic eruption. Using ESMValTool (Earth System Model Evaluation Tool) on an ensemble of historical simulations from CMIP6, such variables as global mean surface temperature (GMST), Arctic sea ice area and Nino 3.4 index were analyzed following the 1883 Krakatoa eruption. While there is a definite decrease in the multi-model mean GMST after the eruption, other indices do not show as prominent change. The reasons for this behavior are under investigation. </p>
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".