Propensity weighted indirect treatment comparison of nivolumab (NIVO) versus placebo (PBO) as adjuvant therapy for resected melanoma: A number needed to treat and overall survival analysis.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
9572 Background: The CheckMate 238 trial demonstrated that NIVO improved recurrence free survival (RFS) vs. ipilimumab (IPI). The EORTC 18071 trial demonstrated that IPI improved RFS and overall survival (OS) vs. PBO. The current study pooled data from these two trials to indirectly assess the RFS and OS of NIVO vs. PBO and the numbers needed to treat (NNTs) for one additional recurrence-free survivor and survivor over 4 years. Methods: Patients with resected AJCC 7th edition stage IIIB/C cutaneous melanoma from CheckMate 238 (NIVO vs. IPI) and EORTC 18071 (IPI vs. PBO) were pooled together with inverse probability weighting to balance between-trial differences in baseline characteristics. NNTs were calculated for RFS and OS comparing NIVO vs. IPI and PBO over 4 years. To account for improved post-recurrence survival over time, a sensitivity analysis that adjusted for post-recurrence survival in the PBO arm of EORTC 18071 was performed. Results: A total of 278, 643, and 365 patients treated with NIVO, IPI, and PBO, respectively, were included. In the weighted samples, patients treated with NIVO had consistently higher RFS rates than those treated with IPI (HR [95% CI]: 0.69 [0.56, 0.85]) and PBO (HR: 0.49 [0.39, 0.61]). NIVO was associated with similar OS as IPI (HR: 0.80 [0.60, 1.08]) and superior OS compared to PBO (HR: 0.45 [0.33, 0.60]). At 4 years, the weighted RFS rate was 53.1% for NIVO, 41.8% for IPI, and 29.1% for PBO. The NNT to achieve one additional recurrence-free survivor was 4.2 for NIVO vs. PBO and 8.9 for NIVO vs. IPI. The NNT to obtain one additional survivor was 4.8 for NIVO vs. PBO and 22.2 for NIVO vs. IPI. The OS rate for PBO after adjusting for differences in post-recurrence treatments at 4 years was 64.1%, and the corresponding NNT of OS comparing NIVO vs. adjusted PBO was 8.5. Conclusions: In patients with resected AJCC 7th edition stage IIIB/C cutaneous melanoma, this indirect comparison showed that NIVO improved RFS and OS vs placebo, with OS improvement maintained after adjustment for post-recurrence therapy.[Table: see text]
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.024 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.016 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".