COVID-19 international border surveillance at Toronto’s Pearson Airport: a cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to estimate the positivity rate of air travellers coming to Toronto, Canada in September and October 2020, on arrival and on day 7 and day 14. The secondary objectives were to estimate the degree of risk based on country of origin and to assess knowledge and attitudes towards COVID-19 control measures and subjective well-being during the quarantine period. DESIGN: Prospective cohort of arriving international travellers. SETTING: Toronto Pearson Airport Terminal 1, Toronto, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Participants of this study were passengers arriving on international flights. Inclusion criteria were those aged 18 or older who had a final destination within 100 km of the airport, spoke English or French, and provided consent. Excluded were those taking a connecting flight, had no internet access, exhibited symptoms of COVID-19 on arrival or were exempted from quarantine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Positive for SARS-CoV-2 virus on reverse transcription PCR with self-administered oral-nasal swab and general well-being using the WHO-5 Well-being Index. RESULTS: Of 16 361 passengers enrolled, 248 (1.5%, 95% CI 1.3% to 1.7%) tested positive. Of these, 167 (67%) were identified on arrival, 67 (27%) on day 7, and 14 (6%) on day 14. The positivity rate increased from 1% in September to 2% in October. Average well-being score declined from 19.8 (out of a maximum of 25) to 15.5 between arrival and day 7 (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A single arrival test will pick up two-thirds of individuals who will become positive by day 14, with most of the rest detected on the second test on day 7. These results support strategies identified through mathematical models that a reduced quarantine combined with testing can be as effective as a 14-day quarantine.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.031 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".