Trends in match concussion incidence and return-to-play time in male professional Rugby Union: A 16-season prospective cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIM: To describe trends in the incidence of match concussions and time to return-to-play in professional rugby union. METHODS: Match concussion incidence (injuries per 1000 player-match-hours) and time to return-to-play (mean and median days absence) were recorded in 3006 male professional rugby union players over 16 seasons (2002/03 - 2018/19). RESULTS: From 2002/03 to 2009/10, incidence of concussions was stable at 4.3/1000 player-match-hours. From 2009/10 to 2018/19, there was an increase in concussion incidence, with the highest incidence in 2016/17 at 20.9/1000 player-match-hours (95% CI: 17.9-24.3). Annual prevalence of concussion also increased, suggesting more players were concussed rather than the same players sustaining more concussions. Before the introduction of standardized graduated return-to-play (GRTP) guidelines in 2011, 27% of players returned to play in <6 days. After the introduction of the GRTP, this decreased to 7%, with no players returning in <6 days after 2014/15. Between 2002/03 and 2018/19, incidence of all other injuries remained stable. CONCLUSIONS: From 2009/10 onwards, the incidence of diagnosed concussions increased. Since the introduction of the GRTP, there has been a dramatic reduction in the number of players returning in <6 days.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".