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Record W3175015083 · doi:10.26076/1247-cca6

Susceptibility of High-Elevation Forests to Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) Under Climate Change

2021· article· en· W3175015083 on OpenAlex
David N. Soderberg

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueDigital Commons - USU (Utah State University) · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicForest Insect Ecology and Management
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDendroctonusMountain pine beetleClimate changeBark beetleElevation (ballistics)ForestryEcologyGeographyEnvironmental scienceBiologyBark (sound)

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Across western North America, pine forests are important for timber, wildlife habitat, and at high elevations are important for water retention and yield from rain and snowmelt. The mountain pine beetle (MPB) is one of the most significant disturbance agents shaping pine forests, and like all insects, temperature is a major driver of its population success and the dynamics of the landscapes that they inhabit. Changing temperature regimes can therefore directly influence MPB population persistence at a particular location, in addition to potential shifts in the range boundaries that they inhabit. MPB is currently expanding its range northward in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada in parallel with warming climates, however, the potential impact of climate change on southern populations of mountain pine beetle is unknown. As the climate warms, the future distribution of MPB will be dictated by the ability to adapt to new and changing environments, in addition the availability and susceptibility of the pine trees that they feed upon. Pine species are known to vary in susceptibility to MPB, which is largely attributed to differences in the production of chemical (e.g., terpenes and their derivatives) and physical (e.g., resin ducts) defenses. Among pines, chemical defenses have been shown to confer defense against MPB, however, the nature of these defenses following biotic incitation has not been evaluated in many pine species. Moreover, lignification within bark beetle feeding tissues (e.g., bark, phloem) has been shown to confer defense within related conifers, but its defensive efficacy has yet to be assessed within pines. To assess MPB response to a changing climate and the relative susceptibility of their pine hosts, I employed a variety of experimental approaches to assess the role of climate on MPB persistence and southern range expansion, in addition to the growth and defense strategies employed within and among high-elevation pine hosts that vary in resistance to MPB. The results from this work suggests that in a warming climate, MPB populations will not only persist, but increase in population. In addition, the MPB southern range boundary is likely limited by biotic interactions, rather than direct temperature effects. Among pines that differ in susceptibility to MPB, the concentration and composition of chemical defenses, as well as concentrations of lignin within the phloem were inversely correlated, with less MPB-susceptible pine species (e.g., Great Basin bristlecone pine) displaying higher concentrations of chemical defenses, but lower concentrations of phloem lignin, relative to more MPB-susceptible species (e.g., limber pine). These findings provide supporting evidence for evolved differences among pine species in investment between growth and defenses, where the concentration and composition of various chemical defenses, but not phloem or bark lignification, are adaptive traits for resisting MPB attack and brood development. My dissertation research advances our understanding of the interactions between MPB and its high-elevation, five-needle Pinus hosts, contributing to the adaptive management of high-elevation forests.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.074
Threshold uncertainty score0.961

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.016
GPT teacher head0.213
Teacher spread0.197 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it