Changes in shipping navigability in the Canadian Arctic between 1972 and 2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
There have been rapid recent reductions in sea ice age and extent in the Canadian Arctic, but little previous analysis of how this has impacted the navigability of Arctic shipping. In this study we analyze how navigability changed over the period 1972–2016 by converting Canadian Ice Service ice charts to shipping navigability charts for different hull strength classifications based on the Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System. Analysis focuses on the southern route of the Northwest Passage, and the Arctic Bridge route across Hudson Bay, for changes in early-season (∼25 June), mid-season (∼3 September), and late-season (∼15 October) conditions. Results reveal that there has been a marked easing in shipping navigability for all vessels over the past decade, driven by reductions in the area and age of sea ice, particularly across the southern route of the Northwest Passage. Both medium (Type B) and little (Type E) ice strengthened vessels were able to transit the full length of this route in the middle part of the shipping season in 2012–2016, but not in 1972–1976 or 1992–1996.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".