Investments in Information Security: A Real Options Perspective with Bayesian Postaudit
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The application of real options techniques to information security is significantly different than in the case of general information technology investments due to characteristics unique to information security. Emerging research in the economics of information security has suggested real options analysis (ROA) as a potential technique for assessing the value of information security assets, but has focused primarily on the most effective level of investment and the configuration of intrusion prevention/detection systems. In this paper, we attempt to address significant gaps ill the literature by developing an integrated real options model for information security investments using Bayesian statistics that Incorporates learning and postauditing in the analysis. By using the proposed model with actual data on e-mail and Spain, we demonstrate that ROA with Bayesian postauditing offers a systematic valuation and risk management framework for evaluating information security spending by firms. We also discuss the managerial implications.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.012 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".