Integrating model tree and modified stepwise regression in concrete slump prediction and steel fabrication estimating
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The model tree algorithm of M5 is integrated with the multiple linear regression technique called modified stepwise regression (MSR), resulting in a new method for modeling complex civil engineering problems. We purposefully chose artificial neural networks (ANN) for comparison against the proposed “M5+MSR” because they fall at the two ends of the model interpretability spectrum in machine learning. This research addresses the critical question of how to balance the trade-off between bias, variance and model complexity in machine learning through contrasting “M5+MSR” against other commonly applied methods. In two application cases (Case 1: concrete workability and Case 2: steel fabrication estimating), the proposed “M5+MSR” gave rise to explainable regression tree models featuring substantially reduced complexities against ANN and model prediction errors comparable to ANN. The resulting “M5+MSR” models consistently outperformed ANN in terms of model overfitting metrics by 19% in Case 1 and 21% in Case 2, thus boasting better learning performances. The proposed new method will potentially find applications in tackling a wide range of complicated engineering problems that entail fitting prediction models based on laboratory or field data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".