Modeling the physical drivers of the decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon uptake
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Observational estimates point to pronounced changes of the Southern Ocean carbon uptake in the past decades, but the mechanisms are still not fully understood. In this study we assess physical drivers of the Southern Ocean carbon uptake variability in a suite of global ocean biogeochemistry models with 0.5º, 0.25º and 0.1º horizontal resolution as well as in a 3-member ensemble performed with an Earth System Model (ESM) sharing the same ocean biogeochemistry model. The ocean models show a positive trend of the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake in the past decades, with a weakening of its rate of increase in the 1990s. The 0.1º model exhibits the strongest trend in the Southern Ocean carbon uptake. Different physical drivers of the carbon uptake variability and of its trends (such as changes in stratification, ventilation, overturning circulation, and SST) are analyzed. A particular focus of this study is to assess the role of open-ocean polynyas in driving Southern Ocean carbon uptake. Open-ocean polynyas in the Southern Ocean have pronounced climate fingerprints, such as reduced sea-ice coverage, heat loss by the ocean and enhanced bottom water formation, but their role for the Southern Ocean carbon uptake has been as yet little studied. To this end we analyze conjunctly ESM simulations and an ocean-only sensitivity experiment where open-ocean polynyas are artificially created by perturbing the Antarctic freshwater runoff. We find that enhanced CO2 outgassing takes place during the polynya opening, because old carbon-rich waters come in contact with the atmosphere. The concomitant increased uptake of anthropogenic CO2 partially compensates the CO2 outgassing. When the polynya closes, the ocean CO2 uptake increases significantly, possibly fueled by abundant nutrients and higher alkalinity brought to the surface during the previous convective phase. Our results suggest that open-ocean polynyas could have a significant impact on the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and could thus modulate its decadal variability.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".