A general reactivity map for predicting outcomes in palladium-catalyzed cross-coupling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Making accurate, quantitative predictions of chemical reactivity based on molecular structure is an unsolved problem in chemical synthesis, particularly for complex molecules. We report a generally applicable and mechanistically based structure-reactivity model for the oxidative addition of (hetero)aryl halides to palladium(0), which is a key step in myriad catalytic processes. This model links simple molecular descriptors – electrostatic potential, steric parameters, and bond strengths – to relative rates of oxidative addition for 71 electrophile substrates. Because oxidative addition often controls the rate and/or selectivity of palladium-catalyzed cross-coupling reactions, this model can be used to make predictions about catalytic reaction outcomes. Demonstrated applications include a quantitative model for the rate of 410 different Sonogashira coupling reactions, and successful site-selectivity predictions for a series of multihalogenated substrates relevant to the synthesis of pharmaceuticals and natural products.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".