Using a high-resolution regional climate model large ensemble to simulate the impact of extreme precipitation on flooding over small to medium-size catchments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent studies show that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase under a warmer climate. It is expected that extreme convective precipitation will scale at a larger than Clausius–Clapeyron rate and especially so for short-duration rainfall. This has implication on flooding risk, and especially so on small catchments (<500 km2) which have a quick response time and are therefore particularly vulnerable to short duration rainfall. The impact of the amplification of extreme precipitation as a function of catchment scale has not been widely studied because most of the climate change impact studies have been conducted at the daily time step or higher. This is because until recently the vast majority of climate model outputs have only been available at the daily time step. This study has looked at the amplification of sub-daily, daily, and multiday extreme precipitation and flooding and its dependency on catchment scale. This work uses outputs from the Climex large-ensemble to study the amplification of extreme streamflow with return period from 2 to 300 years and durations from 1 to 24 hours over 133 North-American catchments. Using a large ensemble allows for the accurate empirical computation of extreme events with very large return periods. Results indicate that future extreme streamflow relative increases are largest for smaller catchments, longer return period, and shorter rainfall durations. Small catchments are therefore more vulnerable to future extreme rainfall than their larger counterparts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".