A competing risks model with binary time varying covariates for estimation of breast cancer risks in <i>BRCA1</i> families
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mammographic screening and prophylactic surgery such as risk-reducing salpingo oophorectomy can potentially reduce breast cancer risks among mutation carriers of BRCA families. The evaluation of these interventions is usually complicated by the fact that their effects on breast cancer may change over time and by the presence of competing risks. We introduce a correlated competing risks model to model breast and ovarian cancer risks within BRCA1 families that accounts for time-varying covariates. Different parametric forms for the effects of time-varying covariates are proposed for more flexibility and a correlated gamma frailty model is specified to account for the correlated competing events.We also introduce a new ascertainment correction approach that accounts for the selection of families through probands affected with either breast or ovarian cancer, or unaffected. Our simulation studies demonstrate the good performances of our proposed approach in terms of bias and precision of the estimators of model parameters and cause-specific penetrances over different levels of familial correlations. We applied our new approach to 498 BRCA1 mutation carrier families recruited through the Breast Cancer Family Registry. Our results demonstrate the importance of the functional form of the time-varying covariate effect when assessing the role of risk-reducing salpingo oophorectomy on breast cancer. In particular, under the best fitting time-varying covariate model, the overall effect of risk-reducing salpingo oophorectomy on breast cancer risk was statistically significant in women with BRCA1 mutation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.028 | 0.042 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".