A Time-Variability Test for Candidate Neutrino Sources Observed with IceCube
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent studies with IceCube have shown signs of a time-integrated flux of astrophysical neutrinos from point-like sources such as TXS 0506+056 and NGC 1068. Time-variability of this neutrino emission from TXS 0506+056 has been studied extensively by assuming a temporal profile of the possible flare(s) or searching for temporal neutrino correlation with other electromagnetic counterparts. However, experimental evidence of the temporal profile of an astrophysical neutrino signal, besides the TXS 0506+056 source, remains lacking. In this study, we present a new KS-test based method for investigating time-variability. This new method complements the existing time-dependent search methods with a test for arbitrary time-variability, independent of an assumed temporal profile or electromagnetic counterpart. Additionally, this method provides a diagnostic tool for characterizing point-like source candidates in IceCube by distinguishing variable from steady neutrino emission and we show results of applying this method to a small catalog of candidate blazars.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".