Relative Ratios of Human Seasonal Coronavirus Antibodies Predict the Efficiency of Cross-Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Binding to ACE2
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Antibodies raised against human seasonal coronaviruses (sCoVs), which are responsible for the common cold, are known to cross-react with SARS-CoV-2 antigens. This prompts questions about their protective role against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 severity. However, the relationship between sCoV exposure and SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection are not clearly identified. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis of cross-reactivity and cross-neutralization to SARS-CoV-2 antigens (S-RBD, S-trimer, N) using pre-pandemic serum from four different groups: pediatrics and adolescents, persons 21 to 70 years of age, older than 70 years of age, and persons living with HCV or HIV. Findings Antibody cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 antigens varied between 1.6% and 15.3% depending on the cohort and the isotype-antigen pair analyzed. We also show a range of neutralizing activity (0-45%) in serum that interferes with SARS-CoV-2 spike attachment to ACE2. While the abundance of sCoV antibodies did not directly correlate with neutralization, we show that neutralizing activity is rather dependent on relative ratios of IgGs in sera directed to all four sCoV spike proteins. More specifically, we identified antibodies to NL63 and OC43 as being the most important predictors of neutralization. Interpretation Our data support that exposure to sCoVs triggers antibody responses that influence the efficiency of SARS-CoV-2 spike binding to ACE2, and may also impact COVID-19 disease severity through other latent variables. Research in Context Evidence before this study There is a growing body of evidence showing that within the population there are varying levels of pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection and possibly COVID-19 disease severity. This immunity is believed to be attributable to prior infection by four prevalent seasonal coronaviruses (sCoVs) responsible for the common cold. Pre-existing immunity can be assessed in part by antibodies directed to sCoVs that also cross-react to SARS-CoV-2 antigens. The SARS-CoV-2 spike and, more specifically, the receptor binding domain are the primary targets for neutralizing antibodies. It is unclear if cross-reactive antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are neutralizing and are also responsible for the broad spectrum of COVID-19 disease severity, from asymptomatic to critical, observed in the infected population. Added-value of this study Here we carried out a detailed analysis of sCoV prevalence in samples acquired before the pandemic from individuals of various age groups and in people living with HIV and HCV. We then analyzed the frequency of all the different types of antibodies that cross-react to three SARS-CoV-2 antigens. We found a high level of people with cross-reactive antibodies, surprisingly we also detected that some people have antibodies that block the SARS-CoV-2 spike from binding to its human receptor, ACE2. By using machine learning, we were able to accurate predict which individuals can neutralize SARS-CoV-2 spike-ACE2 interactions based on their relative ratios of antibodies against the four sCoVs. Implications of all the available evidence We demonstrate that it not absolute levels of sCoVs antibodies that are predictive of neutralization but the relative ratios to all four sCoVs, with NL63 being the most weighted for this prediction. Machine learning also highlighted the existence of latent variables that contribute to the neutralization and that may be related to the type of cellular immune response triggered by the infection to certain sCoVs. This study is one of the first to identify a functional relationship between prior-exposure to sCoV and the establishment of a certain degree of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 by way of a cross-reactive antibody response. Graphical Abstract
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".