A multivariate CVaR risk measure from the perspective of portfolio risk management
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we define a new multivariate conditional Value-at-Risk (MCVaR) risk measure. This MCVaR considers both individual risks and the aggregate risk of a portfolio, but prioritizes the aggregate risk. The new MCVaR risk measure is based on the minimization of the expectation of a multivariate loss function, which balances the shortfall and surplus risks of the aggregate risk and the individual risks in an overall risk of a portfolio. It is shown that the MCVaR risk measure holds the properties of positive homogeneity, translation invariance, subadditivity, and monotonicity under certain conditions. Numerical examples of the MCVaR risk measure are presented to illustrate the effect of dependence among individual risks on the MCVaR.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it