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Record W3180906356 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-299

Accounting for high-dimensional predictors in RFA with MARS 

2021· article· en· W3180906356 on OpenAlexaffabout
Amina Msilini, Pierre Masselot, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicHydrology and Watershed Management Studies
Canadian institutionsInstitut National de la Recherche Scientifique
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMars Exploration ProgramMultivariate adaptive regression splinesQuantileCurse of dimensionalityMultivariate statisticsStreamflowNonlinear systemVariable (mathematics)Computer scienceRegressionGeneralized additive modelStatisticsMathematicsEconometricsDrainage basinNonparametric regressionGeographyCartography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Hydrological processes and phenomena are naturally complex and nonlinear. Many physiographical variables such as those dealing with drainage network characteristics may influence streamflow characteristics and should be considered in regional frequency analysis (RFA). These variables have hence a significant impact on the effectiveness of flood quantile estimation techniques. Although many statistical tools are considered to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites in the hydrological literature, little attention has been given to the nonlinearity and to the high-dimensionality of physio-meteorological variable space. In this study, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) approach is introduced in RFA. This model allows to account simultaneously for non-linearity and interactions between variables hidden in high-dimensional data. MARS is hereby applied on two datasets of 151 hydrometric stations located in the southern part of the province of Quebec (Canada): a standard dataset (STA) including commonly used variables and an extended dataset (EXTD) combining STA with additional variables dealing with drainage network characteristics. It is then compared to generalized additive models (GAM), a state-of-the-art method for regional estimation. Numerical results show that MARS outperforms GAM, especially with the extensive database EXTD. The study suggests that MARS may be a promising tool to take into account the complexity of the hydrological phenomena involved and the increasing number of variables used in RFA.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.009
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.036
Threshold uncertainty score0.071

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.009
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.002
Bibliometrics0.0020.003
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0020.001
Open science0.0020.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0040.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.008
GPT teacher head0.204
Teacher spread0.196 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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