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VenueThe Lancet · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicVaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersDipartimento di Medicina e Chirurgia, Università degli Studi di Milano-BicoccaPediatric Infectious Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health ServicesCenter for International HealthNSW Health PathologySydney Medical SchoolFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaMedical Research CouncilSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape TownUniversity of Florida HealthUniversity of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterImperial College LondonUniversity of TorontoPublic Health EnglandCochrane South AfricaNational Institute for Health Research Southampton Biomedical Research CentreCentre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of AdelaideBrown UniversityWestern Sydney UniversityUniversiteit StellenboschHögskolan i BoråsInstitute of Infection and ImmunityShahroud University of Medical SciencesBabol University of Medical SciencesMenzies Institute for Medical ResearchI.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical UniversityAlexandria UniversityUniversity of ColomboChildren's Hospital of PhiladelphiaXiamen UniversityNSW Ministry of HealthUniversitas AirlanggaNational University of SingaporeWollega UniversityBanaras Hindu UniversitySoutheast UniversityUniversity of TabrizA.T. Still UniversityUniversity of Health and Allied SciencesShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesUniversitatea de Medicină şi Farmacie "Carol Davila" BucureştiGastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research CenterAlexander von Humboldt-StiftungUniversity of Agriculture, FaisalabadUniversidade do PortoUniversitas Muhammadiyah SurakartaKermanshah University of Medical SciencesRajshahi UniversityUniversity of SulaimaniUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsUniversità Cattolica del Sacro CuoreSemnan UniversitySecretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e InnovaciónUniversitat de BarcelonaUniversity of HailUniversitas Syiah KualaMinistério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino SuperiorUniversity of GondarUnited Arab Emirates UniversityHokkaido UniversityUniversiteit UtrechtDebre Tabor UniversityUniversity Of Nigeria NsukkaUniversità di BolognaTechnische Universität MünchenBinzhou Medical UniversityUniwersytet ŁódzkiUniversidade de São PauloTarbiat Modares UniversityHacettepe ÜniversitesiUniversitetet i OsloBirjand University of Medical SciencesUniversity of South CarolinaQazvin University of Medical SciencesGuilan University of Medical SciencesUniversitair Medisch Centrum GroningenChina Medical UniversityAmirkabir University of TechnologySüleyman Demirel ÜniversitesiMinistry of Health and Medical EducationHaramaya UniversityUniversità degli Studi di PaviaHamadan University of Medical SciencesUniversità degli Studi della Campania Luigi VanvitelliMadda Walabu UniversityKerman University of Medical SciencesCurtin University of TechnologyUniversity of South AustraliaUniversiti Sains MalaysiaAddis Ababa UniversitySultan Qaboos UniversityWorld Health OrganizationKaiser PermanenteMazandaran University of Medical SciencesHamad Bin Khalifa UniversityJordan University of Science and TechnologyMinistero della SaluteUniversidad Autónoma de SinaloaUniversità di CataniaNational Research FoundationUniversity of CalcuttaRijksuniversiteit GroningenSharif University of TechnologyUniversitetet i BergenKing Saud UniversityCollege of Science and Engineering, University of MinnesotaShiraz University of Medical SciencesAin Shams UniversityHawassa UniversityKuwait UniversityNorthwestern UniversityUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaLaboratório Associado para a Química VerdeIstituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri - IRCCSNankai UniversityJames Cook UniversityUniversity College LondonUniversiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaDeakin UniversityWuhan UniversityKasturba Medical College, ManipalShanghai Jiao Tong UniversityTaipei Medical UniversityUniversity College CorkMekelle UniversityApplied Molecular Biosciences UnitPublic Health Foundation of IndiaAmity UniversityGeorg-August-Universität GöttingenCOMSATS Institute of Information TechnologyTrường Đại học Nguyễn Tất ThànhStudent Research Committee, Tabriz University of Medical SciencesLa Trobe UniversityTabriz University of Medical SciencesTampereen YliopistoBill and Melinda Gates FoundationInstitució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis AvançatsNational Heart Foundation of AustraliaWestfälische Wilhelms-Universität MünsterIndian Council of Medical ResearchShaheed Benazir Bhutto UniversityBundesministerium für GesundheitSouth African Medical Research CouncilNational Center of Neurology and PsychiatryMashhad University of Medical SciencesTribhuvan UniversityNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchJimma UniversityYale UniversitySecretaria Nacional de Ciencia y TecnologíaSeoul National UniversityUniversidad El BosqueMonash UniversityMongolian National University of Medical SciencesUniversity of Technology SydneyUniversity of Arkansas for Medical SciencesSouth Eastern Sydney Local Health DistrictPfizerUniversità degli Studi di MilanoIran University of Medical SciencesWellcome TrustJohns Hopkins UniversityU.S. Department of Veterans AffairsJazan UniversityChinese University of Hong KongDivision of Human Resource DevelopmentMacquarie UniversityShiraz UniversityKing's College LondonUniversity of Texas Health Science Center at San AntonioBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungResearch Management Centre, International Islamic University MalaysiaInternational Trachoma InitiativeUniversity of OklahomaAlfaisal UniversityUniversity of WaterlooUniversity of TasmaniaUniversity of Central FloridaBahir Dar UniversityUniverzita Karlova v PrazeTexas Tech UniversityGeorgetown UniversityUniversity of Veterinary and Animal SciencesFlorida Department of HealthNational Heart, Lung, and Blood InstituteKrishna Institute Of Medical Sciences Deemed To Be UniversityHamad Medical CorporationUniversitat Autònoma de BarcelonaUniversité de LorraineZahedan University of Medical SciencesHarvard UniversityBournemouth UniversityNational Health and Medical Research CouncilDepartment of Science and Innovation, South AfricaUniversity of Cape TownKhalifa University of Science, Technology and ResearchAuckland University of Technology, New Zealand
KeywordsVaccinationMedicineMeaslesEnvironmental healthGlobal healthMeasles vaccinePoliomyelitisPoliomyelitis eradicationImmunizationDisease burdenPediatricsPopulationPublic healthImmunology
Abstract
fetched live from OpenAlexBACKGROUND: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. METHODS: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. FINDINGS: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. INTERPRETATION: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.020
Threshold uncertainty score0.997
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Teacher spread0.264 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
