On the interaction between fiscal policy and CO<sub>2</sub>emissions in G7 countries: 1875–2016
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examines the impact of fiscal policy and economic growth on CO2 emissions employing a bootstrap causality test in the frequency domain. Analysing a long time series of data from 1875 to 2016 for G7 countries, we mainly aim to investigate the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and whether fiscal policy affects the environment. The findings of causality from government expenditures to CO2 emissions are time-varying. However, the causality from economic growth to CO2 emissions follows a stable path and does not change over time in all countries except Canada. Since causal relations follow a consistent line and do not confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution, the EKC hypothesis does not hold in the G7 countries, implying that environmental problems are not automatically solved. The results also suggest that fiscal policy can contribute to climate change mitigation at different points in time.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it