Progressive Increase in Virulence of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Ontario, Canada
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background The period from February to June 2021 was one during which initial wild-type SARS-CoV-2 strains were supplanted in Ontario, Canada, first by variants of concern (VOC) with the N501Y mutation (Alpha/B1.1.17, Beta/B.1.351 and Gamma/P.1 variants), and then by the Delta/B.1.617 variant. The increased transmissibility of these VOCs has been documented but data for increased virulence is limited. We used Ontario’s COVID-19 case data to evaluate the virulence of these VOCs compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 infections, as measured by risk of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death. Methods We created a retrospective cohort of people in Ontario testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and screened for VOCs, with dates of test report between February 7 and June 27, 2021 (n=212,332). We constructed mixed effects logistic regression models with hospitalization, ICU admission, and death as outcome variables. Models were adjusted for age, sex, time, vaccination status, comorbidities, and pregnancy status. Health units were included as random intercepts. Results Compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 strains, the adjusted elevation in risk associated with N501Y-positive variants was 52% (43-62%) for hospitalization; 89% (67-116%) for ICU admission; and 51% (30-74%) for death. Increases with Delta variant were more pronounced: 108% (80-138%) for hospitalization; 234% (164-331%) for ICU admission; and 132% (47-230%) for death. Interpretation The progressive increase in transmissibility and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs will result in a significantly larger, and more deadly, pandemic than would have occurred in the absence of VOC emergence.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it