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Record W3182728953 · doi:10.15520/sslej.v6i2.2768

The impact of COVID-19 on farmers' economic income in Hubei Province of China

2021· article· en· W3182728953 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Bin Zhao

Bibliographic record

VenueSocial Science Learning Education Journal · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicCOVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsAutoregressive integrated moving averageQuarter (Canadian coin)Agricultural economicsPer capitaPer capita incomeEconomicsAnimal husbandryVariablesTime seriesGross marginStatisticsEconometricsAgricultureGeographyMathematicsPopulationDemography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This paper discusses the statistical measurement of the impact of COVID-19 majoremergencies on farmers' economic income in Hubei Province. Hubei Province wasselected as the object of analysis, and five data of total output value of agriculture,forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and per capita disposable income of farmers inHubei Province from the first quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2020 werecollected by using the Internet. Since all the collected data were macroeconomic data,these data were taken the logarithm to meet the economic significance.The per capita disposable income of farmers was taken as the response variable, andthe main factors affecting farmers' income were obtained by factor analysis.Livestock husbandry and fishery industries were the main industries in HubeiProvince. Then the score of factor analysis were taken as explained variable toestablish regression model composed of influencing factors. This paper use themultiple linear regression, support vector regression to fitting and forecasting data,ARIMA model of time series analysis, introduced at the same time, through the AICmodel choice, with the first quarter of 2013 to 2019 in the second quarter fittingtraining, backward prediction two quarters, and three or four quarter of 2019compared with the real data, through to the predicted results of the sequence diagramand evaluation index model to compare the mean square error (RMSE).Three models predict per capita disposable income of farmers in the first and secondquarter of 2020. It has been found that performance better ARIMA model in themodel compare is worse than before, and three kinds of predicted values are higherthan the real value of the model, showed the outbreak to the influence of theagricultural economy in hubei province is serious.On this basis, taking into accountthe characteristics of geomorphic climate in Hubei province, the constructivesuggestions are put forward.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.061
Threshold uncertainty score0.995

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.027
GPT teacher head0.345
Teacher spread0.318 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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