<scp>HIV</scp> residual risk in Canada for apheresis source plasma donation without deferral for men who have sex with men
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In Canada, men having sex with men (MSM) are deferred for 3 months from last sexual contact to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk to recipients. The aim of this paper was to model the Canadian residual risk of HIV-positive source plasma incorporating pathogen inactivation (PI) under no MSM deferral scenarios for apheresis plasma donations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A combined Bayesian network (BN) and Monte Carlo approach were implemented to estimate the HIV residual risk under 3-month deferral compared with no deferral without quarantine scenarios for MSM donors. Models involve the stochastic generation of donation and its infection status based on its corresponding simulated donor profile. Viral load reduction conferred by PI used by source plasma fractionators was simulated. Model parameters were derived from Héma-Québec and Canadian Blood Services data, viral loads in a large sample of HIV-positive US blood donors, CSL Behring documentation and from published data. RESULTS: In the most likely scenario for the 3-month deferral model, there were 2.71 positive donations per 1,000,000 donations (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.63-2.78). For the no-deferral model, there were 3.01 positive donations per 1,000,000 donations (95% CI 2.94-3.09). For both scenarios, the risk of having an infectious pool was 0 in 300,000 pools (95% CI 0-0.0000123) after consideration of PI. CONCLUSION: Based on simulation results, there would be a negligible HIV residual risk associated with the removal of a time-based MSM deferral without quarantine for source plasma incorporating PI.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".