Bayesian neural network-based uncertainty modelling: application to soil compressibility and undrained shear strength prediction
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study adopts the Bayesian neural network (BNN) integrated with a strong non-linear fitting capability and uncertainty, which has not previously been used in geotechnical engineering, to propose a modelling strategy in developing prediction models for soil properties. The compression index C c and undrained shear strength s u of clays are selected as examples. Variational inference (VI) and Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), two theoretical frameworks for solving and approximating BNN, respectively, are employed and compared. The results indicate that the BNN focused on identifying patterns in datasets, and the predicted C c and s u show excellent agreement with the actual values. The reliability of the predicted results using BNN is high in the area of dense datasets. In contrast, the BNN demonstrates low reliability in the predicted result in the area of sparse datasets. Additionally, a novel parametric analysis method in combination with the cumulative distribution function is proposed. The analysis results indicate that the BNN-based models are capable of capturing the relationships of input parameters to the C c and s u . BNN, with its strong prediction capability and reliable evaluation, therefore, shows great potential to be applied in geotechnical design.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it