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Record W3183767519 · doi:10.1002/qj.4132

Sensitivity of snowfall forecast over North China to ice crystal deposition/sublimation parameterizations in the <scp>WSM6</scp> cloud microphysics scheme

2021· article· en· W3183767519 on OpenAlexaff
Zhanshan Ma, Jason A. Milbrandt, Chuanfeng Zhao, Zhe Li, Tao Fa, Jian Sun, Xueshun Shen, Kong Qi, Feifei Zhou, Liping Huang, Kan Dai, Leqiang Sun, Jiong Chen, Qingu Jiang, Hao Fan, Yikun Yang, Xiangfeng Hu

Bibliographic record

VenueQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Canadian institutionsEnvironment and Climate Change Canada
FundersMinistry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China
KeywordsGraupelSnowEnvironmental scienceWeather Research and Forecasting ModelAtmospheric sciencesIce crystalsSublimation (psychology)Water vaporMeteorologyClimatologyIce nucleusGeologyGeographyPhysics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Ice‐phase cloud microphysical processes are very complicated, and there are still many uncertainties in current microphysics parameterization schemes. In this study, two alternative ice crystal deposition/sublimation (ICDS) parameterizations, following the Harrington et al. , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1995, 52, 4344–4366 and Koenig, Monthly Weather Review, 1972, 100, 417–423 methods, were implemented into the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Single‐Moment 6‐class Microphysics (WSM6) scheme in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) regional operational model to investigate their impact on overestimation of snowfall over North China. The results show that the snowfall amount and cloud particle composition are very sensitive to the ICDS parameterization. Sensitivity tests with WSM6 using the Harrington and Koenig ICDSs, referred to as WSM6_H and WSM6_K, respectively, notably reduced overestimation of the snowfall amount and simulated more realistic supercooled cloud water content compared with ERA5 reanalysis data. The vertical distributions, intensities, and duration of radar echoes simulated by WSM6_H are the most consistent with millimeter‐wavelength cloud radar observations. There is competition for water vapor in WSM6 due to the sequential order in which processes are updated. This tends to weaken the deposition of snow and graupel and the condensation of cloud water when the deposition of ice crystals is too strong in a cold region. In both WSM6_H and WSM6_K, the deposition processes of ice crystals are reduced and the other microphysical transformation processes become more active compared with WSM6. Overall, the WSM6_H configuration improves the forecast performance as evaluated by Taylor diagrams for eight snowfall days over North China. The ICDS parameterizations must therefore be handled carefully due to their large uncertainties in the development of the cloud microphysics schemes.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.307
Threshold uncertainty score0.398

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.015
GPT teacher head0.217
Teacher spread0.202 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations15
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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