Identifying Regions of Trusted Predictions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Quantifying the probability of a label prediction being correct on a given test point enables users to better decide how to use those predictions. Combining aspects of prior work on conformal predictionsand selective classification, we provide a unifying framework for confidence requirements that allows for distinguishing between various sources of uncertainty in the learning process as well as various region specifications.Our first contribution is to expand a taxonomy of formal notions of confidence in label prediction of specific domain instances and of domain sub-regions. We then consider various common prior assumptions on the data generation process and what confidence guarantees they provably entail. Further, we show how, in various cases, unlabeled data can enhance the confidence of predictions and we analyze the sample complexity (both labeled and unlabeled) of learning meaningful pointwise label confidence guarantees.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.123 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".