Advances in quantifying power plant CO2 emissions with OCO-2
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present CO2 emission estimates for twenty power plants and related facilities in the United States, India, South Africa, Poland, Russia and South Korea, derived from space-based CO2 observations from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite. Improvements to OCO-2 data quality and to our methodology yield improved results relative to earlier work. These new results include emission quantification for both larger and smaller power plants, the first power plant emission estimate based on ocean glint data and emissions from a small city with multiple industrial facilities. CO2 emission estimates are compared against reported facility emissions where available, including high temporal resolution data for the eight US sites. The difference with respect to reported values for the US sites ranges from 1.4% to 26.7%, with a mean of 15.1%, although the estimated emission sum for all US sites is within 0.8% of the reported value, suggesting the errors are largely random. This finding reinforces the importance of revisit rate for future space-based emission monitoring systems and furthermore confirms that making multiple overpasses of a power plant can reduce errors to an accuracy useful to support climate policy.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it