Days alive and at home after hip fracture: a cross-sectional validation of a patient-centred outcome measure using routinely collected data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Days alive and at home (DAH) is a patient centered outcome measureable in routinely collected health data. The validity and minimally important difference (MID) in hip fracture have not been evaluated. OBJECTIVE: We assessed construct and predictive validity and estimated a MID for the patient-centred outcome of DAH after hip fracture admission. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional observational study using linked health administrative data in Ontario, Canada. DAH was calculated as the number of days alive within 90 days of admission minus the number of days hospitalised or institutionalised. All hospital admissions (2012-2018) for hip fracture in adults aged >50 years were included. Construct validity analyses used Bayesian quantile regression to estimate the associations of postulated patient, admission and process-related variables with DAH. The predictive validity assessed was the correlation of DAH in 90 days with the value from 91 to 365 days; and the association and discrimination of DAH in 90 days predicting subsequent mortality. MID was estimated by averaging distribution-based and clinical anchor-based estimates. RESULTS: We identified 63 778 patients with hip fracture. The median number of DAH was 43 (range 0-87). In the 90 days after admission, 8050 (12.6%) people died; a further 6366 (10.0%) died from days 91 to 365. Associations between patient-level and admission-level factors with the median DAH (lower with greater age, frailty and comorbidity, lower if admitted to intensive care or having had a complication) supported construct validity. DAH in 90 days after admission was strongly correlated with DAH in 365 days after admission (r=0.922). An 11-day MID was estimated. CONCLUSION: DAH has face, construct and predictive validity as a patient-centred outcome in patients with hip fracture, with an estimated MID of 11 days. Future research is required to include direct patient perspectives in confirming MID.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".