Hydrothermal alteration can result in pore pressurization and volcano instability
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The collapse of a volcanic flank can be destructive and deadly. Hydrothermal alteration is common to volcanoes worldwide and is thought to promote volcano instability by decreasing rock strength. However, some laboratory studies have shown that not all alteration reduces rock strength. Our new laboratory data for altered rhyodacites from Chaos Crags (Lassen volcanic center, California, USA) show that pore- and crack-filling mineral precipitation can reduce porosity and permeability and increase strength, Young's modulus, and cohesion. A significant reduction in permeability, by as much as four orders of magnitude, will inhibit fluid circulation and create zones of high pore fluid pressure. We explored the consequences of pore fluid pressurization on volcano stability using large-scale numerical modeling. Upscaled physical and mechanical properties for hydrothermally altered rocks were used as input parameters in our modeling. Results show that a high-pore-pressure zone within a volcano increases volcano deformation and that increasing the size of this zone increases the observed deformation. Hydrothermal alteration associated with mineral precipitation, and increases to rock strength, can therefore promote pore pressurization and volcano deformation, increasing the likelihood of volcano spreading, flank collapses, and phreatic/phreatomagmatic explosions. We conclude that porosity-decreasing alteration, explored here, and porosity-increasing alteration can both promote volcano instability and collapse, but by different mechanisms. Hydrothermal alteration should therefore be monitored at volcanoes worldwide and incorporated into hazard assessments.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it